IMF Turns More Optimistic About China's Economic Growth in 2019

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Gita Gopinath, director of the research department at the International Monetary Fund, pointed to "the escalation of US-China trade tensions, needed credit tightening in China. disruptions to the auto sector in Germany, and financial tightening" as reasons for the global slowdown. -China trade war and a potentially disorderly British exit from the European Union as key risks and warned that chances of further cuts to the outlook were high.

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said in a recent interview with China Central Television that China's economic development now allows for "a focus on quality growth", rather than necessarily quantity growth.

International Monetary Fund chief economist Gita Gopinath said global growth should rebound if the downside risks do not materialize and the policy support that is put in place is effective.

Gopinath told a news conference Tuesday that monetary policy space varies across different countries, and for many advanced economies it remains limited.

IMF's downward revisions in India's growth forecasts are 20 basis points (bps) each in 2019-20 and 2020-21 from its outlook released in January.

Canada is not alone in the expected slowdown.

It blamed the slowdown on the trade spat and tariff hikes between the United States and China, besides "a decline in business confidence, a tightening of financial conditions, and higher policy uncertainty across many economies".

The minister recently said the country is weeks away from securing an IMF bailout and hoped an agreement would be reached with the fund by late April or first half of May for a package of anywhere between $6 billion to $12 billion.

According to the IMF's outlook report, China is on a low growth trajectory as its economy matures: it grew by 6.6 per cent last year and is projected to slow down to 6.3 per cent this year and 6.1 next year.

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The US economy was seen doing better than most other rich nations, but it too was downgraded on signs that a fiscal stimulus fuelled by tax cuts was producing less activity than previously expected.

The Bank of England should be "cautious" on its interest rate policy, it said in an apparent tip to wait before hiking borrowing costs.

The IMF further kept projection for unemployment rate unchanged at 6.1 percent in 2019 compared with the previous year and ratcheted it up to 6.2 percent in 2020.

He had said, "How can we be growing at 7 per cent and not have jobs".

The world's second biggest economy had grown by 6.6% in 2018, a setback after achieving record growth rates for the past 28 years.

Still, America's ongoing tensions with China and other major trading partners remain a risk for the global economy.

Cuts eurozone growth to 1.3% from 1.6%.

China's prospects brightened, the fund said, after President Donald Trump chose to suspend a planned increase in tariffs on $200 billion USA worth of U.S. -bound Chinese exports. China should prefer on-budget fiscal measures to support growth if needed rather than rolling back the deleveraging process because doing so "would accumulate vulnerabilities for the long run", Milesi-Ferretti said. China responded with retaliatory tariffs on US goods.

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