Oil prices at four-year high after OPEC rebuffs Trump

United States light crude was $1.25 higher at $72.03.

As always, quantifying that cost is hard, but the co-head of oil trading at Trafigura, Ben Luckock, on Monday told the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, hosted by S&P Global Platts, that a price of $90 a barrel by Christmas and $100 by New Year was possible.

Iran says no country can ever compensate for its missing oil supplies to markets in case the US materializes its threat to bring the Islamic Republic's oil exports to zero with a top official saying that US President Donald Trump would sooner or later have a change of heart over his campaign to the same effect.

He added that Russian Federation had not much extra oil left to supply to markets to compensate for a possible halt in Iran's exports once the USA sanctions came into effect. Money managers' wagers on higher Brent crude prices are having their longest streak since November 2017, according to ICE Futures Europe data.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al Falih also ruled out the need to use spare capacity to increase oil output.

Benchmark Brent crude hit its highest since November 2014 at $80.94 per barrel, up $2.14 or 2.7 percent, before easing back to around $80.65 by 1000 GMT.

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"We're on the verge of some significant volatility in Q4 2018 because depending on the severity and duration of the Iranian sanctions, the market simply does not have an adequade supply response for a 2 million barrel a day disappearance of oil from the markets", Jaeggi said.

In its annual World Oil Outlook, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries forecast world supply of all hydrocarbons (primarily oil and liquified natural gas) would rise from a current 98.4 million barrels per day (mbd) to 104.5 million by 2023, and 111.9 million by 2040. "We in Saudi Arabia have not seen demand for any additional barrel that we did not produce".

OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and its biggest oil-producer ally outside the group, Russia, on Sunday effectively rebuffed a demand from Trump for moves to cool the market.

"OPEC is struggling to battle through a ideal storm of strong demand and bigger-than-expected supply losses", said Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari, Commodity Strategists at ANZ Bank last week.

Kazempour Ardebili said the unfavorable conditions for the implementation of US oil sanctions against Iran could eventually forced US President Trump to show a certain level of flexibility.

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