Prediction of spiking United States output caps oil's gains

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USA shale oil output is set to surge over the next five years stealing market share from OPEC producers and moving the country, once the world's top oil importer, closer to self sufficiency, the International Energy Agency said on Monday.

"The set to put its stamp on global oil markets for the next five years", the IEA said in its latest monthly report.

The United States will be the largest oil producer in the world by 2023, the International Energy Agency report said on Monday.

The United States, Canada and Mexico recently formed a working group to address the potential impact on Caribbean nations of the USA restricting imports of Venezuelan crude.

Nigeria's oil minister Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu was more explicit than Barkindo, saying that oil majors operating in both shale fields and in OPEC members should bear some responsibility for prices. Meanwhile, a new marine fuel rule with lower sulfur content that will come into force in 2020 is creating uncertainty in the market.

The International Energy Agency on Monday revised United States oil output growth up sharply, saying the country would be producing a total of almost 17 million barrels per day in 2023, up from 13.2 million previous year, eating into OPEC's market share and moving closer to self-sufficiency. Over the next five years, the expected to add 3.7 million barrels a day of liquids productions, which includes crude, condensates and NGLs.

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Rising U.S. output has weighed on oil prices in recent months amid fears it could dampen global efforts to rid the market of excess supplies.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has not discussed "at this stage" extending production cuts into next year, the group's president said on Sunday, adding that reducing global crude supply inventories remained its focus.

Global oil production capacity is forecast to grow by 6.4 MMbpd to reach 107 MMbpd by 2023.

"We're yet to see what happens with the infrastructure, yet to see the total potential with USA crude and I think that goes to the importance of Canada building its own pipelines", Birn said.

The lack of export space has helped contribute to the sell-off of oilsands assets from Shell, ConocoPhillips and Marathon Oil and the lack of new development approvals, said the IEA.

OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo and other OPEC officials are expected to hold a dinner on Monday with USA shale firms on the sidelines of the conference. This was a bounce up from Friday's two-and-a-half-week lows of $61.13.

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