United States corn production up, soybean down from October

Chart U.S. soybean production

Yield is expected to average a record 900 pounds per harvested acre.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its November 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report lowered its forecast for 2018 U.S. wheat carryover by 3% from its October forecast due to higher exports, slightly lowered forecast soybean carryover due to lower soybean production and raised forecast corn carryover by 6% mainly due to expected higher 2017 corn production. If that comes to fruition, that would stand as the best average yield in the state since 2010, when it was 151.0 bushels per acre. But an estimated 2.14 million acres will be run through the combines in 2017-breaking the previous record set a year ago. Based on conditions as of November 1, yields are expected to average 168 bushels per acre, up four bushels from last month's forecast, but down 10 bushels from previous year. Soybean production was forecast at a record 4.425 billion bushels, down just 6 million bushels from 4.431 billion bushels in October but up 129 million bushels, or 3%, from 4.296 billion bushels a year ago. That would put average USA corn yields even higher than 2016's record-breaking effort of 174.6 bpa. Total U.S. corn production is now estimated at 14.578 billion bushels, up from 14.280 billion bushels a month ago. Import supply fell slightly, too, with crushing volume, exports, seed and residual use totals all unchanged. While big changes are not anticipated, charts for corn and soybeans suggest today could be a turning point giving markets a chance to move beyond harvest lows. NOTE: All figures listed in billions of bushels. Argentina and Brazilian production was left "unchanged".

The U.S.D.A. forecast corn carryover on September 1, 2018, at 2,487 million bus.

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The world is nevertheless still well supplied with wheat. In turn, ending stocks are pushed higher from 2.340 billion to 2.487 billion bushels.

The U.S.D.A. forecast soybean carryover on September 1, 2018, at 425 million bus.

The next round of WASDE and Crop Production reports will be released on December 12.

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